Reality Check on COP29

Mason Kim • January 15, 2025

In recognition of the need to address climate change, the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) met on Nov. 11 in Baku, Azerbaijan (Carbon Brief). Representing nearly 200 countries, delegates engaged in two weeks of negotiation regarding the next steps for tackling global warming. Despite disorganization, political opportunism and fighting, COP29 ended with a last-minute compromise: an annual $300 billion in climate support funds by 2035 (The New York Times).

Leading up to the conference itself, it was unknown whether the delegates could draft a sufficient plan. One fact was clear, however: rapid action was needed. U.N. climate chief Simon Steill claimed $2.4 trillion in annual contributions by 2030 is needed to “keep climate goals within reach” (Reuters). Yet, in contrast with the urgency exhibited by the U.N., COP29’s host nation, Azerbaijan, faced accusations of attempting to promote its own oil industry, which accounts for 90% of the nation’s export revenues, in light of the summit’s global attention (The Washington Post). Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev responded to criticism, stating “Countries should not be blamed for having [oil and gas], and for bringing these resources to the market, because the market needs them” Senior Royce Li echoes Aliyev’s sentiments.

“Countries like Azerbaijan, Egypt and [other oil-producing nations] — especially developing countries — are more concerned with [having a functioning] day to day society.” Li said. “The responsibility [of decarbonization] is mainly up to the developed countries who are already capable of carrying on without heavily relying on unrenewable resources.”

Developing nations are disproportionately vulnerable to climate change and lack the resources to build up low-carbon economies. For blocs of countries most affected, like the Association of Small Island States (AOSIS) and the Least Developed Countries (LDCs), this entailed calling on wealthier nations to make financial commitments to help developing nations adapt to the climate crisis. On Nov. 17th, more than halfway through COP29, negotiations grew inflamed after those commitments failed to manifest. Due to the unwillingness of other countries to make larger contributions, the chair of the LDCs and delegate from Malawi, Evans Njewa, led a walkout alongside AOSIS in protest (BBC). Dissatisfaction persisted even after the conference’s end. With the announcement of the final $300 billion commitment, many delegates were outraged. India’s representative, Chandni Raina, labeled the compromise a “paltry sum” and an “optical illusion.” Others such as Panama’s special envoy, Juan Carlos Monterrey, criticized the conference, calling it “chaotic, poorly managed, and a complete failure” (The New York Times). Junior Anish Anand explained the importance of making headway.

“It’s good to help developing countries right now,” Anand said. “For countries that are fully developed, it’s hard for them to go back and change [their economies]. If developing countries become developed on crude oil, [reversing that would be just as difficult]. Developed countries are in a unique position where they can and should pursue that.”

For some, that rapid change did come as a result of COP29. Optimistic delegates praised the $300 billion compromise as a significant step forward from the $100 billion target conceived in 2009 at COP15 (TIME). But for most developed countries, it is fortunate that a deal was struck in the first place. The top political leaders of the top 13 largest carbon emitters were absent from COP29, including the United States. For many climate scientists and policy experts, their absence has grave implications: it signifies a lack of commitment, political will and shows climate is not the highest priority (Reuters). AP Environmental Science and Biology Honors teacher Ben Smith, describes the issue as significant, yet not irreparable.

“[Even] when a president or prime minister is not in attendance, an individual or team of individuals [well-versed in] climate science and policy issues are [still] in attendance,” Smith said. “This is the case regarding the U.S.”

Another challenge to the negotiations was the reelection of President Donald Trump less than a week prior to the start of COP29. Concerns were raised that Trump’s “Drill baby, drill” stance on climate policy would impede progress, as other nations would use his reelection as an excuse to scale back their own commitments (The New York Times). With the U.S. taking a backseat, China stepped up to plate. Despite being officially recognized as a “developing” country by the U.N., and thus exempt from obligations to contribute, China voluntarily offered contributions to be counted towards the overall fund (BBC).

With the threat of resource scarcity, increased natural disasters and rising sea levels, climate change is undeniably a global issue. Until COP30 in Brazil, the world can only wait to see if the commitments made at COP29 will be honored.